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Prime Time - Week 7!

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After playing DFS for a while, I realize that I have been trying to tackle an animal a bit too big for me. Given that, I have decided to really focus more on the small slates like the Draft Kings Primetime GPP contests. There have been many articles on the paralyzing effect of too many choices. If it's not paralysis then there is the fear of missing out or the eventual regret of making the wrong choice and wondering what could have been. For DFS, the prime time slate is an awesome way to reduce the paralysis and minimize the regret.  On the other hand, with fewer choices there is a reduced opportunity to invest in the right contrarian picks. We all know how important contrarianism is in winning GPPs, and in these smaller slates that becomes all the more important. How does one approach the smaller slates? It's pretty much the same as a normal GPP. Attacking Prime Time GPP  Vegas Lines I like to start with the Vegas lines because that can often cut most prime t...
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Capability vs Opportunity: Week 6

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In an attempt to simplify my weekly DFS selections I wanted to test an different angle now that we have a decent sampling of each team's performance this year. What I have done is built a simple script in PowerShell to do two things: - Count the number of times a team defense has yielded 20 or more points to a fantasy player per position (Opportunity) - Count the number of times a skill position has garnered 20 or more points in an offense (Capability) On ESPN's Fantasy Scoring Leaders page it is easy to break this down on a weekly basis. Based on my analysis of this data, I have provided the following table, color-coded for your reading pleasure. Essentially these values are an estimation of the likelihood that a player at a position in this week's match up will score more than 20 points, based on capability and opportunity. Now it's not perfect , but it could be a solid way to focus research at a glance. This is a first run at this chart, but I hope that it becom...
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Steady Riser: Nelson Agholor

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As an Eagles fan I really enjoyed Sunday's route of the Arizona Cardinals. It appears that Carson Wentz is finding his stride as a legit franchise quarterback, and now that he has reliable weapons plus a solid ground game around him, it seems the Eagles have hope of becoming a playoff contender again. Nelson Agholor was one of last year's largest liabilities in the receiving corps, but man it looks like he has turned it around. Could his current production become something more? 
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Calling My Shot: Week 3 DFS - Joe Mixon

This was a crazy experience today.... This morning I started my day listening to The Fantasy Footballers DFS podcast, but when I got to work I had only listened to about half of the pod. Throughout the day I had some down time and a random thought.... Joe Mixon. Joe Mixon is as cold as ice, but the afore mentioned podcast provided a tip for DFS: don't be afraid to play cold players. Naturally they are contrarian plays because of recency bias, but after looking at a few things, I believe this has the potential to be a week winner, especially in GPPs. As my day ends I hop back in my car and the bluetooth picks up my phone and the podcast right where I left off. Then Mike Wright (the Fantasy Hitman) brings up the very possibility of Joe Mixon being a play to consider. Even though it's kinda gut-wrenching given what we have seen out of Cincinnati so far this season, it's an intriguing thought. Really? Joe Mixon? The Bengals look like an absolute dumpster fire with a terri...
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What Did I Learn? Week 2 - NFL DFS

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Andy Stanley once said, "Experience doesn't make you wiser. Rather it is evaluated experience that makes you wiser." These sound like wise words for anyone doing anything worthwhile. We that love fantasy football, especially daily fantasy sports, should heed this advice and evaluate our roster choices each and every week. So in this "What Did I Learn?" series I plan to share with you my "hindsight is 20/20" view of one of the lineups from the week. Here we see my lineup for week two in one of the smaller GPP contests. I pulled it up next to the winning lineup for sake of comparison. To get top money I would have needed about 50 more points. Let's dig in and see where I went wrong. Running Back Selections Like many choices we make in life, these choices seemed right at the time. Unfortunately, two of the three choices just didn't pan out. Ty Montgomery  Ty Montgomery was a popular choice on just about every podcast last week incl...
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