Calling My Shot: Week 3 DFS - Joe Mixon

This was a crazy experience today.... This morning I started my day listening to The Fantasy Footballers DFS podcast, but when I got to work I had only listened to about half of the pod. Throughout the day I had some down time and a random thought.... Joe Mixon. Joe Mixon is as cold as ice, but the afore mentioned podcast provided a tip for DFS: don't be afraid to play cold players. Naturally they are contrarian plays because of recency bias, but after looking at a few things, I believe this has the potential to be a week winner, especially in GPPs.

As my day ends I hop back in my car and the bluetooth picks up my phone and the podcast right where I left off. Then Mike Wright (the Fantasy Hitman) brings up the very possibility of Joe Mixon being a play to consider. Even though it's kinda gut-wrenching given what we have seen out of Cincinnati so far this season, it's an intriguing thought.

Really? Joe Mixon? The Bengals look like an absolute dumpster fire with a terrible offensive line, a quarterback that appears out of sorts, and reports of a mutiny that seems to be linked with the firing of Ken Zampese. Why on earth would I waste a roster spot on Joe Mixon? Here are some of my thoughts....

THE ORGANIZATION

• New OC means new look to offense which means the value of recent film has diminished for game planning purposes
• Changes in OC this early in the company of these bad performances might have Marvin Lewis' seat heating up
• New pressure to turn things around (OC firing) could inspire new pattern of talent usage
• New possibilities on offense likely has the locker room fired up
• Perhaps Bill Lazor learned from his last stint as OC in Miami which didn't end well for him
• When Lazor was with the Dolphins in 2014 they had 
• 11/16 games with 90+ yards rushing
• 12 rushing TDs  (8 from Lamar Miller)
• 2 passing TDs to RBs 

THE OPPONENT

Green Bay.....

• Seems to be a middling defense with a solid game against the terrible o-line in Seattle and a soft showing against Atlanta
• Has significant linebacker injuries, the effect of which seem to appear in better performance of opposing running backs
• Is 24th in rush defense DVOA....
• 26th in DVOA versus pass catching RBs (While this is really a boost for Gio, we know Mixon has solid receiving skills as well)
• Has the 28th DVOA vs WR1s and 25th vs WR2s which should discourage any stacking of the box while worrying about A.J. Green

After watching the Falcons and Seahawks respective running games versus this defense, I believe that Joe Mixon can produce something in the middle of those two outcomes (closer to Atlanta's performance than Seattle's)

THE PLAY

• Mixon is only 4.5k on Draft Kings
• People seem to be avoiding this offense other than A.J. Green (low ownership for Mixon)
• Mixon's abysmal game in week 1 came against the top rated defense per DVOA (See above for current opponent)
• We know what Jeremy Hill is at this point .... not a franchise RB
• The Over/Under for this game is right on the border of a juicy match up at 46-46.5

THE CAUTION

Temper expectations as it is possible for game flow to affect Mixon's usage in favor of Bernard given that GB is favored by 10 points. Unless of course Cincinnati gets wise and starts to put its best players on the field consistently. I know that, "we haven't seen it yet," but that is why this is the sneaky play. There could be some growing pains as the offense morphs in the coming weeks, therefore it could be a couple of more weeks before it comes to fruition. 

This is a shot worth taking in my opinion. Are you with me?

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