Capability vs Opportunity: Week 6

In an attempt to simplify my weekly DFS selections I wanted to test an different angle now that we have a decent sampling of each team's performance this year. What I have done is built a simple script in PowerShell to do two things:
- Count the number of times a team defense has yielded 20 or more points to a fantasy player per position (Opportunity)
- Count the number of times a skill position has garnered 20 or more points in an offense (Capability)

On ESPN's Fantasy Scoring Leaders page it is easy to break this down on a weekly basis. Based on my analysis of this data, I have provided the following table, color-coded for your reading pleasure. Essentially these values are an estimation of the likelihood that a player at a position in this week's match up will score more than 20 points, based on capability and opportunity. Now it's not perfect, but it could be a solid way to focus research at a glance. This is a first run at this chart, but I hope that it becomes more accurate as we move through the season. 

Applying the Data

Quarterbacks

Jameis Winston

Some of this data is super obvious like Tom Brady vs the Jets and Deshaun Watson vs the Browns, both of which I will be playing in stacks this week. However, I believe there is something else to look at here. Winston is a QB of interest to me, especially given what Wentz did to the Cardinals last week. At a 75% chance to put up more than 20 points he is worth a look as one of the lower owned options out there. Additionally, his receivers have about the same chance of succeeding in this area, but the trick for that is which one? We'll touch on that later. 

Brian Hoyer

Hoyer could be a QB of interest in the 60% range. I know this chart make the receiver chances look abysmal, but since the opponent is Washington we must remember that Norman (a contributing factor in limiting 20+ point performances against the Redskins) is out. We also know that Hoyer can put up some points against bad secondaries, which Washington looks to be one of them now. This game also has a 46-point line indicating a lot of scoring, and considering the state of the secondaries, I would take the over.

Wide Receivers

Pittsburg Receivers

Looking at wide receiver numbers caught me off guard when I saw Pittsburg receivers at 100%. Given their recent struggles and Big Ben's putrid performance last week, I wouldn't have expected this. Then again there is Antonio Brown and the Chiefs defense they face this week hasn't been good since Eric Berry ruptured his Achilles' tendon in week 1. Given that context I could get on board with AB putting up a 20 point performance. 

This is where I look at the Football Outsider's data to see where the Chiefs are weak on defense. It appears that Kansas City is 22nd in DVOA vs WR1s, 4th vs WR2's and 26th vs Other WRs (normally I equate this to slot receivers). We know AB is going to eat, but if Roethisberger can get going who else could have a shot at 20+ points for a smaller cap hit? Perhaps Juju Smith-Schuster or Eli Rogers should be in some DFS lineups. Even if the Chiefs are 4th vs WR2s, Bryant could also benefit from AB's presence as they could move coverage his way. Proceed with caution though as we know the splits are very real and the Steelers are on the road.

Chris Hogan/Brandin Cooks

Looking in the next group at 80%, Hogan is who I am looking at as he has been getting more targets than Cooks currently. Cooks has the better matchup as the Jets are 21st v WR1s, but is Cooks the 1? Who knows! This is probably a coin flip between them so I will take my chance with Hogan. I like the idea of saving a few bucks with Hogan as well. The best thing about either of those options at receiver is that Brady also looks to have a match up with that 80% chance of success.

DeAndre Hopkins/Will Fuller

Deshaun Watson and his receivers also have this situation in their match up with Cleveland, and with a 47 point line in this game it's almost crazy to pass on Hopkins here even at $8100 on Draft Kings. Cleveland is 32nd against WR1s and 31st against Other WR's. I don't think you can go wrong with Fuller either. Even though he would be considered the WR2 here and Cleveland has the best DVOA against them, this is likely because it's quick and easy it identify the open #1 or check down to the slot receiver against them. It almost doesn't matter given that the past couple of weeks both Fuller and Hopkins have been crazy productive. Hopkins is the better cash play here, but I think Fuller is probably a better GPP play that can be combined with something like Julio or AB.

TY Hilton/Donte Moncrief

If anyone is playing the small Primetime slate, I would highly consider the Brissett and Hilton/Moncrief stack. Indianapolis receivers are at 80% on the chart, but Moncrief may be a better low-ownership play to consider if salary cap becomes an issue. Tennessee is 30th vs WR2s so while I believe that TY will get his, I would feel pretty comfortable betting that Moncrief get's to slap the bass on Monday Night Football.

Other receiver's to consider:

• Thielen vs Packers 
• Vikings have to keep up with Aaron Rodgers
•  If Diggs plays he'll still be dealing with a groin injury
• Minnesota is 26th vs WR1s and 20th vs other receivers in DVOA
• DeSean Jackson vs Cardinals 
• Chart projects 75% chance of success for TB WRs
• Agholor and Smith crushed Arizona's secondary last week
• Peterson will likely shadow Evans
• Arizona is 17th vs WR2s
• Looking for Jackson to do this!

via GIPHY

Running Backs

Todd Gurley

Now this portion probably raised some eyebrows. Think back to how the Jags allowed both Powell and McGuire to put up 20+ point performances in week 4? That is what is "throwing off" the numbers, but I believe that this is still a legitimate indicator of potential success. It obviously doesn't mean that it is a guarantee of 20+ points from Todd Gurley, but the Jags are 31st against the run. I'm playing Gurley. Period.

Leonard Fournette

On the flip side of that game, Fournette is facing the Rams who are 18th against the run in DVOA. Considering what he did to the 15th ranked Pittsburg rush defense, its almost a foregone conclusion that he will destroy a Rams defense that hasn't looked great on film either. The biggest challenge is figuring out the game flow. If the Rams somehow get a good lead, then Fournette could be scripted out in an effort to play catch up. This game has a low total at 42.5, and given that I could believe this will be a battle of the trenches. One thing we cannot predict is the how each team will game plan to deal with their obvious weaknesses so this will be an interesting game to study in relation to this data.

Kareem Hunt

Kareem Hunt is a beast and I wish had trusted what I saw in him when I was watching college film on running backs over the summer. Again, Fournette crushed Pittsburg last week, so this is an easy chalk play just like the other two above. 

Melvin Gordon

Since all the backs above are so chalk, what about some more contrarian plays? I like Melvin Gordon with a 60% chance to put up 20+ points, facing a defense in Oakland that is 19th in DVOA against the run, and not too many people are talking about him. Consider that Oakland is also 30th against the pass in DVOA and it seems like a situation that Rivers can take advantage of at home, thus opening up the run for Gordon. Of course there are concerns of a location due to events near the stadium so that could introduce some variables. Melvin Gordon could be a decent contrarian play, but you won't save much money as he is only $200 less than the other three backs. Some of us do find ourselves in a bind over a few hundred dollars in cap so maybe this will be useful for some of you.

Jerrick McKinnon

A solid low cost play though is Jerrick McKinnon. With a 60% chance to perform, a Packers defense that is 20th against the run and 25th against pass catching running backs, it makes so much sense to take a chance on McKinnon. Given what we saw Monday night, I believe that McKinnon is the primary option. I realize that he had his long run for a touchdown on a broken defensive call, but he only costs $4100 on Draft Kings. Much like I stated earlier for Thielen, Minnesota is going to have to chase Aaron Rodgers for points which means that McKinnon will be more useful between the 20's with a chance to break one for a score or two.

Tight Ends

The metrics point to two obvious candidates for tight end performances (Gronk and Kelce), but there is one other that I really like. If George Kittle plays I believe he could do a lot of damage to a Washington defense that isn't whole right now. Washington is 31st vs the tight end which makes this match up juicy. He had a 21 point performance last week according per ESPN, and Hoyer showed his growing trust in Kittle on deep throws especially on some critical downs. 

Being that there are no match ups above 40% for tight ends, I may have to revisit the tight end point threshold. 

Good luck to all players this Sunday in your respective lineups! May capability align with opportunity!