Steady Riser: Nelson Agholor

As an Eagles fan I really enjoyed Sunday's route of the Arizona Cardinals. It appears that Carson Wentz is finding his stride as a legit franchise quarterback, and now that he has reliable weapons plus a solid ground game around him, it seems the Eagles have hope of becoming a playoff contender again. Nelson Agholor was one of last year's largest liabilities in the receiving corps, but man it looks like he has turned it around. Could his current production become something more? 

Nelson's Improvment

Drops! Drops! Drops, drops, drops drops. This is all that comes to mind when picturing his lack of contributions last year. Surely, it was frustrating for the Eagles and anyone that may have been holding onto Agholor as a dynasty owner last year.  The 2016 season came and went and then training reports start hyping him up again. We all know how most training camp buzz amounts to disappointment, but not so much in this case. Well I guess that depends on how the hype affected your expectations. 

Anyway, after looking at his targets in these five games this season, Nelson has improved quite a bit. No he isn't living up to his draft pedigree, but you have to admit he has improved. In all of these targets I could only see one legitimate drop and that came in yesterday's game. Many of the incompletions were due to pretty good plays on the ball or throws that could have used a little more touch or accuracy.

The one thing that is sticking out to me is Wentz' apparent trust in the receiver, especially on deep balls. In a lot of cases when a receiver drops a very manageable pass a passer will look elsewhere. However, this was not the case as shortly after the drop Wentz went back to Agholor on a 17-yard strike down the field on third down. I fully expect this trust to build into a lucrative relationship between Wentz and Agholor. Because of that I am expecting to see more of this....

Nelson's Opposition

Opinions on the value and validity of Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades vary greatly, but I use it here as it makes discussion of the subject easier. Agholor has been covered by defenders with PFF grades ranging from 36.4 - 84.6 (64.5 average). While he does benefit from matching up with safeties, linebackers, and nickel corners, he has taken advantage of it to the tune of 16 receptions for 266 yards and 3 TDs (trending toward 51-851-10). 

Given that Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith are threats on the outside in their own right, it makes sense that Nelson will continue to see the lower end of capabilities in opposing defenders. Does this mean we should expect to continue to watch Agholor rise? While the possibility seems more believable now, let's just take it one week at a time and look at next week.

Nelson's Next Test

For this next game versus the Caroline Panthers, there should be an opportunity for Agholor to see at least the same opportunities if not more. Philadelphia just routed Arizona, because they seem to be nothing without David Johnson. This gave the Eagles more opportunities to target Agholor against a defense that was ranked 19th in DVOA versus receivers in the 'Other' category which is where I would align Agholor. The defenders lined up against Agholor in week 5 were graded 43.9 (Mathieu), 44.7 (Bethel), and 46.1 (Baker). Arizona had other areas of weakness in the pass game per Football Outsiders with DVOA rankings of 25 (v WR1) and 22 (v TEs), which is reflected in their overall 19th ranking against the pass.

Carolina just had a really good game against the Lions and it looked like they were able to keep the passing game in check with no gains over 25 yards and no receiver gained more than 58 yards. Seems like a really tough test for Agholor, but let's look at the defenders he might have to face. 

The only two players I saw trying to cover any receiver in the slot were Thompson (LB - 63.3 PFF grade) and Munnerlyn (Safety - 44.3 PFF grade). From the PFF grade perspective, this appears that it will be more of a challenge for Agholor. Additionally, Carolina is better in overall pass DVOA sitting at #12 per week 5 football outsiders DVOA. However, their defensive rankings against receiver types paints an interesting picture. The Panthers are 26th, 17th, and 22nd versus WR1s, WR2s, and Other Receivers respectively. 

Munnerlyn and Thompson did not seem to have the speed or quickness to match up with Agholor watching the latest game against Detroit, but somehow Golden Tate didn't really seem to have the impact you would expect to have on the game.

What To Do?

Given all of this information, what does this mean from a fantasy perspective? This would normally be where you hear, "keep an eye on this player," but that seems hardly useful. If you keep watching him, then you watch him rise and by the time you are compelled to make a move, you have been scooped. What I am doing is buying Agholor in dynasty for a long play as a WR3 with upside for years to come.

For redraft,  I would claim him off of waivers if in need for a WR or if you want a stash for a bye week soon. Three of the next four weeks the Eagles face defenses that are currently 22nd or worse versus 'Other' receivers and these same teams are ranked 17th or worse versus WR2s. Two of the next four games are against teams that are 23rd or worse against tight ends and with Zach Ertz playing so well it makes sense that he would garner more attention, thus providing Agholor some opportunities. 

As for DFS, I may continue to look at him to fill that flex spot at prices around $4k. This would totally a high upside play week-to-week. I would look to plug him into a few lineups especially against San Francisco in week 8 and as a super-contrarian play in week 9 versus Denver. 

As for Thursday, I am at a complete loss for what to do for these games anymore. Last season it was a pretty good bet to straight fade this Thursday Night Football, but through 5 weeks we have had some crazy high-scoring games, and some significant disappointments. Given the way these offenses have been scoring points, I would wager that this game would be projected to be on the higher end of the spectrum, something like a 48 point line with a spread less than 5. To be honest, I want to take a shot on this game with Agholor, but it will probably be in smaller slates like the Monday Night - Thursday Night competitions on Draft Kings.