Prime Time - Week 7!
After playing DFS for a while, I realize that I have been trying to tackle an animal a bit too big for me. Given that, I have decided to really focus more on the small slates like the Draft Kings Primetime GPP contests. There have been many articles on the paralyzing effect of too many choices. If it's not paralysis then there is the fear of missing out or the eventual regret of making the wrong choice and wondering what could have been. For DFS, the prime time slate is an awesome way to reduce the paralysis and minimize the regret.
On the other hand, with fewer choices there is a reduced opportunity to invest in the right contrarian picks. We all know how important contrarianism is in winning GPPs, and in these smaller slates that becomes all the more important. How does one approach the smaller slates? It's pretty much the same as a normal GPP.
Attacking Prime Time GPP
Vegas Lines
I like to start with the Vegas lines because that can often cut most prime time slates in half. In addition to effectively reducing your choices for offensive players, the number of defenses to choose gets reduced to two - essentially a coin flip at worst. Unfortunately, this weekend's slate is not so clear with a 55-point over/under for the Super Bowl rematch as Atlanta visits New England, and the other match up on Monday Night Football has a 48.5 over/under as Washington visits my own Philadelphia Eagles. Now we have to assess capabilities and opportunities.
Opportunity vs. Capability
Next, I consider opportunity versus capability on a positional basis so that I can then figure out where to focus my salary and research. Opportunity is based on the number of 20+ point performances a given defense has given up and seeing how that overlaps with the number of 20+ point performances the opposing offense has generated represented as a percentage.
The above image shows the percentages for each position. While higher is better, this also can be used to identify opportunities of where one could be contrarian. Looking at these 100% markers for Ryan and Cousins, and taking in the public perception of both of the opposing defenses, I would wager that most people will gravitate towards these two QBs. I do not automatically rule them out, but I do heavily consider the other options especially when one of them is a future Hall of Famer in Brady and the other has looked like a legit stud in every game played so far this season facing some good defenses. This information is simply one piece of the puzzle in selecting a player.
DVOA
Football Outsiders DVOA metric is a useful one for identifying team and positional performance. I'm sure you have heard of it by now, but if not you should take it into consideration as a source of information. This is used to identify which receiver types a defense is weak against. Assuming that a team knows how its strengths and weaknesses compare to their opponent creates a challenge in using this data. They could either try to compensate for bad match ups or take their chances straight up betting on their strengths. However, pairing this information up with some film study using something like Game Pass may help make this easier. The great thing about prime time slates is that your film study is cut down to 12-15%.
Building the Roster
Building the roster still poses a challenge, and to be honest I cannot tell you how to build yours for success. What I can do is describe the roster I want to build and give you some insight to my thoughts.Tom Brady $8k - QB
I fully expect Brady to dissect Atlanta's defense like the second half of the last Super Bowl. There should be plenty of targets to running backs (see James White later), and we know the story of Atlanta's defense against pass catching backs. The Falcons rank 22nd against the pass and 29th against the rush indicating an opportunity for a balanced attack which bodes well for Brady and his high football IQ.LeGarrette Blount $4.5k - RB
Smallwood's potential re-entry into the lineup gives me some pause here, but based on how efficient Blount has been, Philly's O-line improving, and the return of Lane Johnson makes Blount worth a shot at that price. Washington is 15th against the rush and since the Eagles have been productive vs the 4th and 6th rush defenses per DVOA in Arizona and Carolina respectively, Washington's defense doesn't scare me much.James White $5k - RB
As stated above all defense does not deal well with pass catching RBs (19th in DVOA). While this could be a Dion Lewis game, I'm betting on Belichick to juke the fantasy community and use White heavily. These choices at running back save me money and provide what I think could be a contrarian advantage.Danny Amendola $5.6k - WR
Amendola has stayed involved in the passing game, and his price allows me to have the possibility of double dipping in this potential high scoring game. The Falcons defense is 17th, 21st, and 14th versus WR1s, WR2s, and Other receivers respectively. Plenty of opportunity to spread it out for Brady, but I am hoping they will look to Amendola when it counts. People might favor Hogan or Cooks for bounce back games, but I'll take my chances here so that I can spend money on my next choice.Julio Jones $8.5k - WR
There was news about the Falcons needing to get Julio more targets, so why not buy into that against this porous New England defense (32nd vs. pass, 27th vs run). We know what Julio can do and he is due for targets. This may be considered the 'free square' play, but I am OK having shares in Julio like the rest of the competition. Julio's splits regarding targets in wins and losses in compelling; 8.6 targets per game in the wins, but only 5.5 targets per game in the losses. Math says throw Julio the ball and win!Nelson Agholor $4.9k - WR
Featured in the introductory graphic, Nelson has been good this year, and with a TD in 4 of 6 games so far this season, I'm betting he gets at least one solid mismatch downfield for another score. If Josh Norman and Brashaud Breeland both don't play then it seems like this would be the game where Alshon goes complete 'ham' on the skins secondary. Since I am betting on this to happen, I am also betting that they double Alshon to stop the bleeding, leaving Agholor one-on-one with a mismatch. This is recipe for scores, especially considering Wentz' ability to throw downfield lately.
Zach Ertz $6.9k - TE
Given the amount of targets Zach Ertz has gotten so far this season, it's hard not to play him. He's only $400 less than Gronk, but it's just enough to help my budget for this lineup. In addition to the targets, there is the fact that Washington is 31st versus tight ends in DVOA. Ertz is a critical part to this offense so hopefully he will be a critical part of a winning line up.
Josh Doctson $3.8k - FLEX
While I would have liked Chris Thompson in this spot, I don't mind Doctson here. This week there has been talk about Doctson getting more involved in the offense. Also, I feel that he has higher upside than both Pryor and Crowder as of late. At this price, the only other options that seem viable are Torrey Smith, Ryan Grant, Rex Burkhead, and Vernon Davis. While these are options, I believe that Doctson gives me both TD potential and a little diversity in my lineup.
Eagles $2.9K - DST
Out of all the offenses out there, I don't want to face New England, Atlanta, or Philly right now, because those offenses are performing really well as of late. Additionally, Washington has looked like they have been fighting an uphill battle in every game, and given the way this defense has played lately with pressure and generating turnovers, I think it's a long night for Cousins. The Eagles DST should be the best option available on this slate.
Good luck to all of you this weekend!
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