What Did I Learn? Week 2 - NFL DFS
Running Back Selections
Like many choices we make in life, these choices seemed right at the time. Unfortunately, two of the three choices just didn't pan out.Ty Montgomery
Ty Montgomery was a popular choice on just about every podcast last week including The Fantasy Footballers DFS podcast. There was no fighting this chalk play especially in the wake of Tarik Cohen's success against the Falcons in week one. I'm curious how far Atlanta's failure to contain pass catching backs will go. Is this perhaps a chance to gamble on the Lions Abdullah/Riddick in week 3?Mike Gillislee
Gillislee was more of a high variance play in a high over/under game against the Saints. I still believe this was a good play for the salary. Given his variance, I believe this will keep his price, and potentially his ownership, in check. He will make many of my future rosters.Marshawn Lynch
Lynch is where I think I went wrong. The heavy favoring of the Raiders drew me in, but I should have known better that the Jets are truly terrible because their secondary is horrid. Their defensive line still puts up decent resistance so I would attack the secondary as well. Additionally, the weak secondary was attractive for Washington and Richard to have some contributions, taking away from Lynch's workload.CJ Anderson
Not considering CJ Anderson was another oversight that I had. Somehow, the Giants' utter disaster of an offensive line duped me into believing that the Cowboys were outplaying their talent level based on what I have seen in years past. I also underestimated the Broncos offensive line. They are group to watch for juicy matchups as I believe CJ Anderson will continue to eat. However, the loss of Garret Bolles may have an impact on their offensive prowess. In addition to looking for teams with good run blocking grades against Dallas, I will also look for those who seem to have a balanced offense, as I think this game showed that the Cowboys will struggle against those teams.Wide Receivers
The Misses
As for wide receivers, I can't say that I had any blatant mistakes aside from fading Crabtree for Cooper in another lineup. I am beginning to think that Cooper will never take over the WR1 role in Oakland. As stated before with the matchup, the secondary is bad which means the true WR1 should do plenty of damage, and he did.Mike Evans
Selecting Mike Evans wasn't a miss, but I thought that I was going to get more out of him against Chicago's secondary. Alas, he only yielded fractions of a point more than Keenan Allen who was way cheaper. Swap out Rivers and Evans for Siemian and Crabtree, and I would have won big! I was thinking that since Evans was 8 of 10 according to FanShare mentions that he would be a solid lower owned player with a high floor and ceiling. Well, guess I was closer to the floor on this choice.
Chris Hogan
Chris Hogan gave me a lot of angst when trying to make the choice between him and Brandin Cooks. It was either buy into the "Revenge Game!" narrative or believe the stats and my eyes based on week 1. I am thankful I chose the latter as it got me more points for less salary. This choice that simply made sense as it has the upside of the Patriots offense, the upside of a bad New Orleans pass defense, and a high projected total. It simply made sense, but I believe with the litany of play-making options in New England we will always have to temper expectations for anyone.... including Tom Brady (thanks to Gillislee and pass interference on the goal line).
Quarterback
Man, I should have heeded to Mike "The Fantasy Hitman" Wright's advice with his super contrarian stack play of Trevor Siemian and Emmanuel Sanders over Phillip Rivers and Mike Evans. Rivers wasn't a dud by any means, but I could have spent somewhere around the same money, or even saved a few bucks and got better output. I just couldn't bring myself to believe in Siemian after the week one performance. This is why its a great idea to get GamePass and watch the game film more closely. I was quickly reminded that Siemian's week one stat line would have been way better if it weren't for some near misses to Sanders.Circling back to the choice on Rivers, I was banking on the rust of the Dolphins both on offense and defense. Unfortunately, the Dolphins secondary wasn't quite as soft as hoped and Cutler didn't throw any picks to create more Chargers offensive opportunities.
Another miss on QBs was Derek Carr. I did play him in another lineup, but stacked him with Cooper. If I could have saved some money at WR (say JJ Nelson instead of Evans) I would have been able to play this stack against a defense that everyone knows is bad.
Tight End
Jason Witten was one of my few real "hits" this week. He scored a fraction of a point less than Gronk but for a significantly smaller cap hit. I do believe that he will continue to be a solid low cost option this season. With any good match ups I believe he should be strongly considered especially considering Dak's usage of Witten when he is in trouble.
Lessons Learned
This section will be used to track some trends that I believe will continue for at least a few weeks of this season and some general things I need to remember to consider for future lineups.- Look closer at film for high end defensive performances (are they actually good enough to fade their next opponent or is their current opponent just bad?)
- Never fade a good QB/WR stack on a team heavily favored by Vegas against the Jets
- Continue to play Gillislee, lest he blow up when I don't play him (too much TD opportunity to pass on)
- Siemian and Broncos receivers seem have great chemistry building toward a good offense
- Gronk is too expensive, but finding the right alternative will be tricky
- Until further notice, don't fade WRs versus the Colts when Vontae Davis is out
- Play RBs behind solid run blocking line versus Dallas
- Consider fading RBs where good QB/WR stack exists especially if RB doesn't catch passes when team is a heavy favorite
Well we'll see if any of these lessons learned help me next week.
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